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Taking control of the Bull - How to manage commodity exposure in highly volatile markets
Sep 07, 2021
Right now markets are on a bull run
“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria” —Sir John Templeton
Global commodity prices react to a myriad of factors: geopolitical tension, supply disruption, economic gloom/boom, a pandemic hitting demand forecasts or positive vaccine plans turning forecasts on their head.
One thing is for certain, the price of a commodity very rarely stays the same day to day or week to week. Something or someone will influence the price up or down. This is what we call market volatility.
Over the last 12 months, many global commodity markets have seen significant rises, or to put it another way, they have gone on a ‘bull run’. For example:
• EU ETS Carbon prices up 168%
• UK Winter 21 Electricity up 170%
• European TTF gas prices up 262%
• Brent Crude up 75%
Forecasters jumped into a positive mood as a number of major global economies began an accelerated vaccine programme. Also, shortages of physical supply in some markets drove prices exponentially up.
Whatever the reasons for this big move, it was sustained and prices across the board remain historically high.
Will investors be buying at these highs?
A common misconception is that at times of historical peaks and troughs there is never going to be someone buying and someone selling.
For example, were there companies buying oil in 2008 at $147 per barrel in the summer of 2008? Answer, absolutely there were. Why? Because either they thought it was going higher (projections suggested over $200 a barrel) or they were hedging it against something else.
Was it a good trade or not? Only the traders buying it or selling it will be able to tell you, based on individual circumstances and how it played out.
Take the current EU ETS carbon price. Is it good value at the current level of 62.31 euros a tonne? Well, it is a higher price for a buyer than it was two weeks ago at 56.54 euros per tonne, and trading at record highs for a seller; but, as we said before, this is only half the story.
Anyone can look at history and tell you what happened, but it’s much harder to forecast what will happen in an uncertain future. Welcome to hindsight trading.
What you can do is forecast what impact certain scenarios have on your business, which will make the overall decision-making process far easier.
Ask yourself when does the price become too painful to handle or too good to be true?
As you start to build this picture you will quickly realise the importance of understanding your unique position. You will realise this isn’t just about ‘playing the markets’ to lock in a commodity price. It’s more than likely to be about a hedge against something else. If one is fixed and one is variable, you need to make sure they are managed in line with each other.
4 rules for your commodity strategy
Below are some examples of why your commodity hedging strategy needs to be aligned to other areas of your business to reduce exposure, not increase it:
- Hedging oil but not foreign exchange rate: If you have an exposure to a commodity like oil, it’s important to manage your exposure to the commodity in a structured manner, especially if you can’t pass this cost on. You also need to be aware that foreign exchange rates are equally volatile, and you need to make sure if you are paying in sterling, you are covering the exchange rate with the dollar. If this is left open, your exposure continues to be open.
- Setting utility rates with your customers but not the underlying commodity. As highlighted above, the commodity markets in the UK energy sector have increased dramatically in the last year. It is imperative any customer contract locked in at a fixed rate is immediately backed off either within a generation or supply portfolio or in the wholesale market. Margins can disappear in an instant, creating a loss-making scenario even before the final contract has arrived in the post.
- Setting a budget for electricity and gas without any headroom. Budgets are critical to the overall performance of your business. As a result, they sometimes take time to agree and finalise. If a ‘provisional’ budget is created without any headroom (capital at risk) against the current commodity market prices, and then it disappears for a month for approval, you are essentially ‘flipping a coin’ whether it will emerge from the process ‘in’ or ‘out’ of money.
- Building a capital investment plan without accurate market data. Markets move all the time, which can create a problem when you are trying to build a business case for a long-term capital investment plan. There are multiple data sets, which can at times can become highly complicated. One point which frequently gets overlooked when assessing a low carbon investment solution is accurate ‘cost mitigation’. How much will this project save from either a carbon or overall utilities spend? If you don’t have an accurate forecast of long-term price projections, history states there will be some incredible solutions that end up on the stakeholder desk ‘gathering dust’ because of inaccurate ROIs.
Taking back control
As we have shown, in the examples above and price inflation over the last year, price hedging is a complicated process, but it doesn’t have to be that way.
Sure, it’s easy to slip into one of two worlds: never knowing you are exposed to volatility before it’s too late; or being paralysed with the fear of making a wrong decision and doing nothing.
However, do it right and you will feel in control of the ‘bull’ or the ‘bear’ (a falling market) and you will be able to make calm and considered decisions which set your business on the right track.
If you would like to talk to the edenseven team on how to manage your exposure to global commodity markets, enabling your organisation to achieve its true potential, please contact us at edenseven.co.uk.
Wind energy was the main contributing source to Britain’s electricity in March 2024, accounting for 33% of the mix, a 4% increase compared to March 2023, and its highest contribution for March in the last 4 years. Solar contributed 4% of the electricity mix in March 2024, a 1% increase compared with March 2023. Gas contributed 24% of Britain’s electricity mix in March 2024, the second lowest proportion of Britain’s electricity it has made up since at least 2020 and a 10% decrease compared with March 2023. Imports saw a 3% increase, comprising 17% of the mix, its second highest proportion since at least 2020. Coal, Nuclear, Biomass, Hydro & Storage contributions remained consistent with March 2023. More than half (51%) of the electricity generation in March 2024 came from zero-carbon sources, representing a 4% increase from March 2023, and the highest for March in the previous 4 years. The rolling 12-month average for April 2023 to March 2024 remains substantially lower than the previous three 12-month periods, at 148 gCO₂/kWh, and 17% lower than the previous 12-month period. Increasing the electricity generation delivered by renewable sources can help us achieve our Net-Zero ambitions, ensure energy security, and decrease reliance on imports.
26/03/2024 – edenseven is excited to announce that they have, within a consortium led by Peterborough City Council (PCC), been awarded a £2.75m grant by Innovate UK, part of a total £3.2m project, to boost the local authority’s ability to achieve net zero. This success is testament to PCC’s ambition to deliver a Net Zero City, the essential role that local authorities play in delivering carbon reductions nationwide, and the goal shared by edenseven and the rest of the consortium to support this journey. Working alongside edenseven and PCC, this consortium includes Cambridgeshire County Council, Nordic Energy, Energy Systems Catapult, and PECT. The shared aim of this team is to deliver ‘Peterborough Accelerated Net Zero (PANZ)’ over the next 18 months. This venture is designed to encourage healthier living, reduce costs, and develop a sustainable green skills market. Peterborough was one of the first cities in the UK to adopt a Local Area Energy Plan, which considered the current and future energy demands of heating, electricity, and transport, and laid out its pathway to reach Net Zero. PANZ will pioneer an approach to build on this Local Area Energy Plan, tailoring solutions to the needs of community and place. The project will support the Council in selecting projects that deliver on both carbon reduction and the Council’s many other aspirations for the city. It will encourage financial bundling of projects to create portfolios that can attract private investment, including district heating, and it will enable the Council to track the progress and impact of city-scale projects, making sure investment is directed toward the biggest environmental, social, demographic, and economic impact. edenseven aims to transform the way Local Authorities navigate the complex transition to Net Zero by developing an intuitive, tailor-made, carbon accounting and management platform that can provide a complete view of city-wide emissions and decarbonisation plans. It will give the Council a clear understanding of its current position against Net Zero targets, create insight to identify areas where action is required, and uses the reporting functionality to measure progress. Pete Nisbet, Managing Partner for edenseven, said: “In these pivotal years for decarbonisation in the UK, edenseven is thrilled to be collaborating with Peterborough City Council and the consortium on their Net Zero strategy. We recognise the critical role local authorities play in decarbonising the UK economy and are delighted to partner with forward-looking councils such as Peterborough and Cambridgeshire. This partnership creates a cross functional team equipped to deliver immediate actions for the local economy, as well as supporting the efficient future management of Net Zero projects. It marks the inception of a unique partnership across the public. private and third sectors and showcases our commitment to pioneering sustainable solutions that create social impact.” For more information about the Innovate UK funding, visit Innovate UK invests over £25m in net zero projects – UKRI About edenseven edenseven is a sustainability consultancy and technology provider that uses data and market experience to enable companies and their supply chains to play their part in tackling climate change while achieving sustainable growth. edenseven uses the combined power of data, advanced analytics, and pragmatic project management to help companies baseline their status, identify improvement opportunities in the short, medium, and long terms, and plan and implement those opportunities. For more information, visit our website: www.edenseven.co.uk
In February 2024, wind energy was the main contributing source to Britain’s electricity, accounting for 35% of the mix, a 4% increase compared to February 2023, but lower than the contribution in February 2022 (40%). Gas accounted for 27% of Britain’s electricity mix in February 2024, a 6% decrease compared with February 2023. Solar contributed 2% of the electricity mix in February 2024, a 1% decrease compared with February 2023. Coal and Nuclear contributions remained consistent with February 2023, delivering 1% & 11% of the mix, respectively. Imports and hydro saw a 1% increase in their contributions, comprising 14% and 3% of the mix. Biomass increased by 2% to the 7% of the mix compared with February 2023. More than half (51%) of the electricity generation in February 2024 came from zero-carbon sources, representing a 4% increase from February 2023, but lower than February 2022 (60%). The carbon intensity for Britain's electricity generation in February 2024 was 19% lower than for February 2023. The rolling 12-month average for March 2023 to February 2024 remains substantially lower than the previous two 12-month periods, at 151 gCO₂/kWh. Increasing the electricity generation delivered by renewable sources can help us achieve our Net-Zero ambitions, ensure energy security, and decrease reliance on imports.
edenseven are following trends in the renewable energy sector closely, as decarbonising the energy sector is vital for ensuring a sustainable future and achieving Net Zero. Considering the recent DESNZ quarterly update of the renewable energy planning database, we have produced a consolidated summary of projects in the United Kingdom that have received planning permission. We will continue to release updates each quarter. INSIGHT In the past 12 months, the highest number of solar PV projects were granted planning permission in the UK compared to any other 12-month period (out of the period included in analysis). This number is 54% higher than the second-highest 12-month period. As a result, the electricity capacity of solar PV projects granted planning permission is at its highest of any 12-month period (out of the period included in analysis). Although fewer onshore wind projects received planning permission, they are expected to produce 46% more electricity than projects granted planning permission in the previous 12 months.
Gas was the primary contributor to Britain’s electricity in January 2024, accounting for 36% of the mix. This was an 8% increase compared with January 2023, although this was lower than the contribution in January 2022 (37%). Wind energy was the second-largest contributor, accounting for 33% of Britain’s electricity mix in January 2024. This is a 3% decrease compared with January 2023. Solar delivered 2% of the electricity mix in January 2024, which is a 1% increase compared with January 2023 and its highest contribution for January in the previous three years. Coal’s contribution remained consistent with January 2023. Nuclear contributed 9% in January 2024, a decrease of 5% compared to January 2023, and the lowest level in the previous three years. Imports and hydro contributed 9% and 2%, which is a decrease of 2% and 1 % compared with January 2023. Biomass contributed 6% to the mix, representing a 2% increase compared with January 2023. Almost half (47%) of the electricity generation in January 2024 came from zero-carbon sources, matching January 2022 but significantly lower than January 2023, which had approximately 10% more from zero-carbon sources. Despite this, the rolling 12-average for February 2023 to January 2024 remains substantially lower than the previous two 12-month periods, at 154 gCO₂/kWh. Increasing the electricity generation delivered by renewable sources can help us achieve our Net-Zero ambitions, ensure energy security, and decrease reliance on imports.
What is it? The International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) announced two international sustainability standards in 2023, IFRS S1 & S2. IFRS S1 is for sustainability-related financial disclosures and IFRS S2 is for climate-related disclosures. The two standards are designed to be applied together. The standards fully incorporate the recommendations of the Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD). This means that organisations that comply with the requirements of IFRS S1 and S2 will also be meeting the requirements of TCFD. The standards are voluntary unless adopted into national legislation. The UK is strongly considering adopting the standards into the UK Sustainability Disclosure Standards (UK SDS), currently being developed and due to be announced in July 2024. Who does it apply to?
What is it? The Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) is an EU directive announced in 2021 to improve corporate transparency, data accuracy, and comparability of their sustainability performance and their associated sustainability risks for investors and stakeholders. CSRD replaces the Non-Financial Reporting Directive (NFRD) and seeks to address its shortcomings by increasing the number of companies in-scope from around 12,000 to 50,000, requiring third party assurance, ensuring a machine-readable format, and requiring additional disclosures covering a broader range of sustainability topics. Additionally, CSRD was developed to align with other frameworks and standards, such as the EU Taxonomy and TCFD, creating harmonised reporting. Who does it apply to?
What is it? The Task- Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) was created in 2015 by the Financial Stability Board (FSB), to increase the number of company’s reporting climate information and improve the quality of disclosures. In 2023, TCFD was disbanded as it was deemed to have fulfilled its role. However, in-scope companies are still required to disclose TCFD information. The International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) has taken over the monitoring of disclosures. Companies that comply with IFRS sustainability standards, S1 and S2 will also meet TCFD recommendations because these recommendations have been incorporated into the standards. The UK is considering implementing the IFRS S1 and S2 requirements into the UK Sustainability Disclosure Standards (UK SDS), which are expected be announced in July 2024. Businesses should prepare to be compliant with IFRS standards in preparation for upcoming regulation. Who does TCFD apply to?
Well, kind of. In October 2023, TCFD was disbanded after fulfilling its purpose of enhancing corporate climate reporting by creating a widely utilised climate reporting framework. The International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) Foundation has taken responsibility for monitoring corporate TCFD disclosures. So, what does this mean for UK businesses? UK businesses within the scope of TCFD reporting are still required to report. IFRS has developed sustainability standards which fully incorporate the TCFD recommendations, known as IFRS S1 and S2. IFRS S1 is for sustainability-related financial disclosures and IFRS S2 is for climate-related disclosures. This means that organisations that comply with the requirements of IFRS S1 and S2 will also be meeting the requirements of TCFD. Does this mean UK businesses will be required to comply with IFRS S1 & 2? Presently, IFRS S1 and S2 remain voluntary disclosures as they have not been adopted into UK legislation. However, this is expected to change. The UK government has expressed interest in adopting IFRS S1 & S2 into its UK Sustainability Disclosure Standards (UK SDS), currently being developed by the Department for Business and Trade. These standards are expected to be released in July 2024 and are likely to then be adopted into UK legislation. When this happens, businesses will need to disclose more information than currently under TCFD. This is likely to include sustainability disclosures that go beyond climate change, such as for water, pollution, biodiversity, resource use and management, whilst also focusing on the social and governance of the business, including the internal and external workforce, and business conduct. What businesses need to do With the increasing regulatory landscape, businesses must focus on data and accelerate their sustainability journeys. Businesses will need to identify, collect and analyse sustainability-related data to ensure they are prepared for upcoming regulations. This includes understanding the environmental impact from their operations and their supply chain. It is also essential to formulate an actionable pathway to Net Zero. cero.earth, our carbon accounting and management platform, provides a seamless solution to ensuring compliance. Capturing and analysing your data, giving you a comprehensive picture of your carbon emissions across scopes 1, 2 and 3, the ability to map carbon scenarios, input business defined targets, create action plans and track performance. The ‘Managed’ solution means all the data capture and reporting is done for you by our expert team, and with the ‘Strategic’ option so is all your compliance reporting – taking the problem away from you entirely.
As global climate regulations come into effect, businesses are facing a growing demand to disclose carbon emissions arising from their operations and their supply chain. However, navigating carbon reporting standards such as TCFD , CSRD , and IFRS can be daunting for businesses. Their complex disclosure requirements combined with differing applicability criteria and staggered timelines puts organisations at risk of reputational damage and fines for non-compliance. cero.earth from edenseven is cloud-based carbon accounting and management platform. Designed to support organisations of all sizes, cero.earth and expert analysts from edenseven will simplify reporting and disclosure, ensuring your business is compliant with all relevant climate regulations.
